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Large uncertainties mean it is not clear which electrification pathway will prove most economical. Development of multiple pathways should, therefore, continue. These include statically charged battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and electric vehicles designed for a combination of plug-in and electric road system (ERS) supply. The largest uncertainties relate to the cost of hydrogen, electrical supply, and battery life. Consequently, efforts should focus on the techno-economic analysis of these parameters.

The economics of green hydrogen will depend on electrolyzer and fuel cell costs, life spans and efficiencies, distribution and storage costs, the time-based cost of renewable electricity, and the extent to which more efficient electrolyzers with heat recovery methods can be used. Green hydrogen must first be allocated to where there is little alternative. For example, existing industrial feedstock uses, aviation, steel production and seasonal energy buffering in the grid. Most of the surplus electricity is likely to be consumed my these uses, meaning that additional hydrogen production for road transport will require additional generation capacity.

Uncertainties in electrical distribution costs largely reflect different geographical regions. The unit costs are known for power converters and cabling associated with transmission and distribution. Region-specific cost models are needed, especially for ERS. An improved understanding of vehicle battery life is vital in evaluating the cost of battery and hybrid vehicles. For ERS, it is critical to understand how battery life will be affected by frequent cycling and the extent to which battery technology from hybrid vehicles can be applied. ERS must also now be tested on busy public roads to establish maintenance costs.

The full report is available from SAE International.

Writing this major review for SAE has been a real eye-opener. I had the privilege of working with 19 experts, many world leaders in their fields. They provided technical inputs on topics as diverse as future battery technologies, critical metal mining, the impact of particulates on public health, green hydrogen production and balancing electrical demand.

I was expecting to learn about supply constraints for electrification, the value of active travel and the efficiency of public transport. What really surprised me was the huge potential of electric road systems.

Ramping up battery electric vehicle (BEV) production to fully decarbonize the automotive sector in time to meet climate goals will be a huge challenge. We simply don’t have the critical metal supply from current mining operations and, with current lead times, new mines won’t be commissioned quickly enough. Even if we do manage to electrify our road transport, this won’t solve the particulate pollution problem. Millions of people will continue to die from respiratory diseases caused by inhaling tiny particles produced by brake and tire wear.

Active travel is the clear winner for urban transport. Walking and cycling around cities not only eliminate greenhouse gasses and particulates. They also massively improves public health through increased activity levels – cutting heart disease, cancer and mental illness. Cities can transition to active transport by creating new road infrastructures that are far cheaper than other transport solutions while paying for themselves rapidly through reduced healthcare costs. I’m actually just launching another project that will address the need for new forms of lightweight vehicle that better integrate peoples urban travel needs.

Despite the huge scope for active travel for short and often urban journeys, these short journeys only account for 11% of greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonizing the remaining emissions caused by heavy goods transport and longer journeys requires a different solution. The options are essentially public transport or automotive electrification. The cultural shift to active travel within cities will facilitate public transport by providing the ‘first and last mile’ transport needed for A-to-B journeys.

While hydrogen is often seen as the only solution for long-haul heavy vehicles, there is an alternative. Electric road systems (ERS) could provide an incredibly efficient way to electrify road transport for longer journeys. Systems with conductive rails on the road surface or inductive loops just below it have been developed. These can identify individual vehicles and energize short sections of road as they pass over, allowing each vehicle to be billed for just the electricity they use. If only the major roads are electrified then vehicles will still require batteries but they can be much smaller, to provide power for just the last few miles away from the highway. Techno-economic studies have shown that the cost savings from reduced batteries would more than offset the cost of the ERS infrastructure. Such an approach greatly reduces the current bottleneck of supplying the critical metals required for battery production.

https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/epr2020014/If you want to find out more about this report it can be purchased directly from SAE International.

The problem with wind and solar is intermittency and storage. Hydrogen is often seen as the solution – an ideal way to store this energy. The availability of cars like the Toyota Mirai, or hydrogen-powered buses, leads many people to believe a hydrogen revolution is just around the corner. In this article I explain why hydrogen is not the right path to follow.

The problem is efficiency. If we start with electricity from solar, wind or nuclear, then we want it to stay as electricity for as long as possible. Electricity can produce mechanical work with at least 90% efficiency. Using a heat pump we can effectively heat a building with more than 100% efficiency – typically between 200% and 400%. Producing hydrogen, compressing it, pumping it and turning it back into electricity or mechanical work, all involve significant losses of energy. Therefore, fuel cell vehicles are four or five times less efficient than battery vehicles.

Some argue hydrogen is the only option for heavy trucks, but electrification of roads and railways is not only more efficient but also less capital intensive if the increased power generation is taken into account. For example, the cost of electrifying the UK’s major roads has been estimated at $39 Billion, but the improved efficiency compared to hydrogen would reduce the required investment in new solar and wind installations by about $180 Billion.

Hydrogen should have a limited role in grid storage and industrial applications. Widespread use of hydrogen for transport and heat will greatly increase the cost of decarbonization. Read my full article about the state of the hydrogen economy published on engineering.com

I recently carried out a review of bicycle manufacturers in Europe and was really surprised to see how strong the growth is in this sector. The most competitive operations are lean and highly automated. Being close to the market gives them the edge in terms of controlling quality and responding to market demand and servicing warranty agreements:

The close to market advantage:

• Controlling quality: The key to maintaining quality is performing final assembly in-house although increasingly frame production is also being re-shored with automated production.
• Responding to demand: The established business model, with retailers ordering their stock for the year ahead, and then waiting for a shipment from Asia, doesn’t work in a more dynamic consumer market. For bike share operators, rapid design changes are expected in response to operational experience.
• Servicing warranties: Whether bikes are sold to consumers or to fleet operators, being able to quickly return bikes to the factory for warranty repairs allows better service, and for quality to be improved, preventing future issues.

Low-Wage or High-Productivity?

Traditionally, bicycle manufacturing has had low levels of automation and therefore competitiveness has depended on operating in a low-wage economy. However, if productivity can be enhanced, then a more highly-skilled workforce becomes an advantage. German automotive production is a classic example of competitive manufacturing with very high wages. Lean principles can enhance the productivity of manual operations but achieving very high productivity requires automation.

E-bike sales are growing incredibly quickly and greatly increasing what people are willing to pay for a bike. The Dutch buy about one million bicycles a year, with an average value of $1,300. On a $/kg basis, they are more expensive than the Porsche 911 Turbo. This is high-value manufacturing and it creates a real opportunity for job creation as we transition to a low-carbon economy.

The Importance of Automation

The most rapid growth has been seen in Portugal where a ‘Bicycle Valley’ has been created with state aid. Bicycle exports from Portugal grew by 400% in 2019 with production now approaching 2 million bicycles annually and supporting 8,000 direct jobs. The flagship company is Triangles, the first company in the world to fully automate the production of aluminum bicycle frames, with a capacity of 250,000 frames annually. The expense of setup, programming and proving out routines, means this isn’t suited to very small production runs of less than 5,000 frames per year.

Potentially the greatest savings from automating frame production may come from high-pressure die casting in magnesium alloy. Some smaller manufacturers, such MiRiDER, are already buying in die-cast frames from Asia but at relatively low volumes of just 2,000 frames, it can be economical to purchase your own tooling. Foundries based in the UK  are highly competitive and well established in the automotive supply chain.

If you want to find out more, here’s the full article.